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The NDP likes to say that it must always be election-ready — especially in a minority Parliament.
But as the party looks ahead to 2024, many signs indicate its election machinery is gearing up.
Some outside the party point out that money issues still stand in the way of getting the NDP ready for an election.
Party treasurer Sussanne Skidmore said the NDP expects to be debt-free by 2024. With less than $2 million outstanding, she said, the party should be able to retire its $22 million debt from the 2021 campaign next year.
For New Democrats, that’s the good news.
In the past, the NDP has relied on its ability to use its prime real estate in downtown Ottawa as collateral to finance its campaigns. It also keeps Elections Canada campaign expense reimbursements — money that used to flow to candidates and electoral district associations.
But the party still trails the Conservatives and Liberals in fundraising — something Skidmore said needs to change.
“We know that an election could come at any time, so we must be prepared,” she said. “We must continue to work hard to close the fundraising gap between us and our opponents.”
New Democrats have raised $2.6 million this year — a far cry from the $6.8 million raised by the Liberals or the $16.2 million collected by the Conservatives.
Increased fundraising revenue, Skidmore said, means more campaign workers on the ground, better research and more advertising between elections.
Candidates already out door-knocking
The NDP is also trying to nominate more of its candidates earlier.
As of Sunday, the party had completed 20 nominations. The latest confirmed candidate is incumbent Nunavut MP Lori Idlout.
In the New Brunswick riding of Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, where the NDP placed a distant third behind a Liberal cabinet minister, the party’s candidate is already knocking on doors and fundraising.
Candidate Serge Landry told CBC he has an early start this time around. During the last election, he was nominated in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe only two weeks after the writ dropped and only managed to spend about $3,400 on the campaign.
Landry said he and his riding association have raised $10,000 already as he prepares for the next federal election.
“So right off the bat, two years ahead, (I’ve) already tripled the money that I had last time, and we’re building on that,” he said.
NDP party headquarters also hopes to learn lessons from previous campaigns, including the recent winning provincial campaign in Manitoba, said former NDP campaign manager Jennifer Howard.
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Howard, currently chief of staff to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, said the party paid close attention to Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s campaign. The provincial NDP’s victory over the Progressive Conservatives underscored the importance of a “phenomenal ground game” and moving resources from secure ridings to battlegrounds, she said.
Howard said Kinew’s campaign also demonstrated the value of disciplined messaging on issues important to Canadians, such as health care and the cost of living.
“The Liberals and Conservatives continue to try to divide folks, continue to practise kind of wedge politics against each other,” she said. “I do think there’s an appetite for somebody to come in and say … ‘Let’s come together.'”
NDP tests its campaign messages
Howard said New Democrats hope that Manitoba’s example sends a message to voters that New Democrats can win and wield power.
“We have real-life governments who are doing the things that we’re talking about. It’s kind of a proof-point that those things can happen,” Howard said.
The party also has started road-testing its election messaging, Howard said. Its recent policy convention in Hamilton, she said, offered a preview of what could be coming.
In his remarks at the convention, Singh said the Liberals have become out of touch after eight years in government. Singh also accused Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre of attempting to recast his political image as one of an Ottawa outsider rather than a career politician.
“You can see Pierre Poilievre, who holds himself as this outsider fighting the elites,” Singh told reporters in Hamilton. “He is the ultimate elite who was in government for ten years, almost, with the Harper government.
“So he is no outsider. He is the epitome of an insider, who was in government with a Conservative government that hurt people.”
Singh’s focus on Poilievre might reflect a fear of the Conservatives pulling support from New Democrats.
David Coletto, chair and CEO of the Abacus Data polling firm, said the NDP’s vote share has remained largely the same for the last several years.
“I think the big challenge for the New Democrats is that they haven’t really benefited from the fact the Liberals are as weak as they ever have been since Justin Trudeau was first elected,” he said.
Canadians have a deep desire for change, Coletto said, and New Democrats don’t seem to be benefiting from voters’ fatigue with the incumbent government.
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