Why Lauren Boebert is scrambling to a new district in Colorado

Rep. Lauren Boebert, R-Colo., is hopping over to a neighboring congressional district next year to run for re-election to the House. Boebert announced Wednesday that she won’t be running in her native 3rd Congressional District, which she’s represented for two terms, and is instead leaping over to the 4th, where Rep. Ken Buck, R-Colo., is retiring. It’s a sign of how much she’s made a mess of things in her current district, and it underscores how serving as a MAGA firebrand has limited her versatility as a politician even in what should be friendly territory.

Of course, that wasn’t how Boebert explained her decision. “It’s the right move for me personally, and it’s the right decision for those who support our conservative movement,” she said in a video announcement Wednesday. She didn’t get into how exactly it’s the right thing for the 4th District, where she won’t be moving until next year. But her calculation is straightforward: The 4th District is considerably more conservative than the 3rd, giving her higher chances of winning a race, assuming she prevails in the primary.

In her announcement, Boebert argued that her hand had been forced. She claimed that “Hollywood elites and progressive money groups” were conspiring against her to “buy” the 3rd District. It’s true that Democratic rival Adam Frisch has been pulling in record-breaking amounts of cash for an expected rematch against Boebert (although it’s worth noting that he was also dwarfing her small-dollar donors). Frisch’s strong performance against her last year was a surprise — it was a district that Donald Trump won by 6 points in 2020, and Trump had endorsed her. Boebert has chosen to duck out to avoid what might’ve been shaping up to be a fatal blow. 

And Boebert has only herself to blame for the predicament. In her brief time in office, she established herself as one of the most prominent and controversial politicians on Capitol Hill. She insisted on walking around Washington armed with a gun and made a show of refusing to be patted down after setting off metal detectors in the U.S. Capitol. She made bigoted jokes about a Muslim colleague’s being a terrorist. She had awkward confrontations with advocates for mass shooting victims. She became buddies with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, whose conspiracy theories were as racist as they were ludicrous, only to then have a very public falling-out. While the 3rd District leans red, it’s the most Democratic friendly of the state’s GOP-held districts, and Boebert’s appetite for hard-right and inflammatory activism quickly became politically risky. 

After that narrow re-election, Boebert also had a personal scandal this year that seemingly repelled even longtime supporters. She and her companion were kicked out of a performance of “Beetlejuice” in Denver in September after fellow theatergoers complained about inappropriate behavior. That incident may have been what Boebert was referring to when she noted that she had made “personal mistakes” in the past year in discussing her decision not to run again in her current district.

The combination of Boebert’s controversies and Frisch’s rise inspired prominent Republicans conservatives to turn on her. Former Gov. Bill Owens and former Sen. Hank Brown endorsed her relatively moderate Republican primary challenger, Jeff Hurd, as did the conservative-leaning editorial board of The Colorado Springs Gazette. “Boebert has a seemingly intractable image problem, which has manifested in lackluster financial support,” the board noted in its endorsement of Hurd. “She appears divisive at a time when voters want peace.”

It’s a sign of how toxic Boebert had become that after she announced she wouldn’t be running in the 3rd Congressional District, the Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the race from “toss-up” to “lean Republican.” Boebert’s reputation had made a red district more purple than it would’ve otherwise been. But rather than rethink the way she does politics or consider more broadly how she might better serve her constituents, she’s fleeing to another district where she hopes a more conservative electorate will shield her from the cost of her recklessness and attention-seeking activism. Whether that’s good for the people of Colorado appears to be the least of her concerns.