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Haley has already tried to pull this off in a head-to-head race, last month in New Hampshire, where the electorate was
friendlier to her than South Carolina’s is likely to be. According to
exit polls, half of the GOP electorate in New Hampshire identified as independent or Democratic, and a third was moderate or liberal. But Haley lost, anyway.
There’s also race and religiosity. Eight years ago, when South Carolina delivered Trump his second victory in the nominating contests, white voters made up 97.9 percent of the electorate, according to state voter data. And most of those voters identified as evangelicals or born-again Christians, according to exit polls, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the entire GOP electorate.
In 2016, Trump won white evangelicals by a slim margin, beating Sen. Ted Cruz, 34 percent to 26 percent. But this year, it’s no contest: A
Monmouth University-Washington Post poll late last month gave Trump a 47-point lead over Haley, 69 percent to 22 percent, among a bloc that dominates the electorate in South Carolina.
Among all other voters, the two candidates are essentially tied — but there aren’t nearly enough of them to offset Trump’s enormous advantage among white evangelicals.
Similarly, Trump holds a big lead in the Monmouth University-Washington Post poll among voters without a college degree, 68 percent to 22 percent, while the two candidates are tied among college graduates.
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