Common thread helps tie together Democrats’ latest election victories

In the first Republican presidential primary debate, several candidates boasted about their opposition to abortion rights. Soon after, Ronna McDaniel, the chair of the Republican National Committee, told Fox News she was “very pleased“ with the comments.

“If our candidates aren’t able to find a response and put out a response, we’re not going to win,” the party chair said.

The problem for the party, of course, is that reproductive rights are already preventing the party from winning, whether Republicans want to admit it or not. NBC News’ Adam Edelman explained overnight:

This framing struck me as notable — and accurate — because it’s important not to see the latest Democratic victories in isolation. There’s a pattern, and it matters.

Two years ago this week, Republicans were optimistic, and their positive attitudes were grounded in fact. The 2020 election cycle was largely a disaster for the GOP — voters put Democrats in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress — but in 2021, Republicans fared very well in Virginia, winning up and down the ballot, and nearly pulled off an unexpected upset in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race. Party strategists looked ahead and saw a bright future.

Seven months later, Republican-appointed justices on the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. As we’ve discussed, Democrats were confident that the ruling would spark an electoral backlash. GOP officials heard the predictions — and scoffed.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told NPR that he expected voters’ interests to lie elsewhere. A day earlier, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said something similar, telling The Wall Street Journal, “I just don’t think this is going to be the big political issue everybody thinks it is.”

Oops.

In the aftermath of the ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, Republicans struggled in 2022 special elections. And then again in the 2022 midterms. And then again in 2023 special elections. And then again in this week’s 2023 off-year elections.

Indeed, as the dust settles on Election Day 2023, there’s very little for GOP officials to point to in the way of good news. Yes, Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves managed to overcome failures and controversies, and win by roughly five points, but in effectively all of the other closely watched contests, up and down the ballot, Democrats had a great night.

Or to the point, another great night.

It’s not exactly a secret that the prevailing sentiment in Democratic politics lately has been overwhelming anxiety, especially in the wake of the latest New York Times poll, which ricocheted throughout the political world with blinding speed. The party needed some good news, which arrived in the form of the only poll that matters: election results.