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Although New Jersey Republicans are far from gaining control of the state legislature, some of the hottest primary elections happening there Tuesday could provide a temperature-check on how GOP voters are responding to national issues.
A lot of these primaries are sleepy, but some are worth watching for what they might tell us about the mood of Republicans more broadly.
In the GOP primary for state Senate in the 26th District, incumbent Joe Pennacchio and challenger Morris County Commissioner Tom Mastrangelo are trading barbs over “woke” curriculum in schools and immigration.
In a battle over who’s more conservative in the state’s deep-red 24th Legislative District, five Republicans running for two open Assembly seats are flexing their bonafides on everything from gun rights to opposing abortion access. On the airwaves, Sussex County Commissioner Dawn Fantasia and Chester Mayor Mike Inganamort, who are running on one slate, claim they stand “up to [President Joe Biden] and [Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy] in New Jersey.” That slate and another — pairing Warren County Commissioner Jason Sarnoski and Lafayette Board of Education President Josh Aikens — have gotten hit with accusations of being too liberal, in true GOP primary fashion.
It’s a race to watch because part of that district overlaps with NJ-07, represented by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., who narrowly won last year. It’s the only congressional district in the state that the GOP flipped in 2022, and has already been marked as a target by national Democrats. Last week, Democrat Sue Altman, a progressive force in New Jersey politics, jumped into the race, in which Kean’s team echoed the “too liberal” playbook by calling her part of the “the most divisive and extreme aspects of the fringe of her party.”
The outcomes of these legislative races later this year could also provide some clues for Republicans hoping to flip the governorship in two years, as Murphy is term-limited. Republican Jack Ciattarelli narrowly lost in the race for governor in 2021.
Republicans gained some ground in New Jersey in 2021, picking up seven seats in the legislature. As my POLITICO New Jersey colleagues report, some Republicans in the state are feeling bullish about their chances to capitalize on that momentum and flip some more seats. That’s due to a “new district map and a public they believe is chafing at two decades of Democratic control of the Legislature.”
Still, Democrats in the Garden State have the majority in both the state Senate and Assembly. They have a 25-15 majority in the Senate and a 46-34 advantage in the Assembly. All 120 seats are on the ballot in November, and 21 primaries are being held on Tuesday. There are more open seats up for grabs than there have been in over a decade.
Unlike some other competitive legislative races this year — like Virginia, where GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin is raising millions of dollars to help Republicans hold the state House and flip the state Senate — Jersey isn’t getting as much love from national groups. The Republican State Leadership Committee said last month in a memo that it’s looking to “defend the seats gained, while working to take away from the Democrats’ 12 seat advantage in the House and eight seat advantage in the Senate.” For as much as the primary may tell us about the GOP electorate, a target memo from Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee doesn’t even mention New Jersey.
Happy Monday. Reach me at [email protected] and @madfernandez616.
Days until the Virginia primary: 15
Days until the Mississippi primary: 64
Days until the Louisiana primary: 131
Days until the 2023 election: 155
Days until the 2024 election: 519
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UP FOR DEBATE — The RNC’s first GOP presidential primary debate will take place on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee. Don’t expect everyone to make it. To qualify, candidates must poll at least 1 percent in three national polls or 1 percent in two national polls and 1 percent in one early state poll, have a minimum of 40,000 unique donors, and commit to supporting the eventual nominee. If enough candidates qualify, a second debate will be held on Aug. 24.
The requirements are stricter than they’ve been in the past, our Steve Shepard notes. “Candidates who have long, impressive political resumes but are struggling to gain any traction in the polls may be left out in the cold.” Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley are among those who have already said that they met the fundraising requirements, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump are shoo-ins on that front. Steve breaks down the field of declared and potential candidates to see who might be working overtime in the coming months.
… In other debate news: There’s a deadlock over “who will host the rest of the 2024 GOP presidential debates, and uncertainty over whether they’ll happen at all,” writes Axios’ Alex Thompson and Sara Fischer. Outlets pitching include CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, PBS and The Washington Post. POLITICO, Axios, Facebook and Twitter didn’t pitch.
CATTLE CALL — Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) Roast and Ride, which took place on Saturday, marked the first major cattle call of the 2024 presidential election. Nearly every big GOP presidential hopeful was there — except former President Donald Trump. Read our Natalie Allison’s dispatch.
CAUCUS RUCKUS — “A plan that would have Iowa Democrats declare their 2024 presidential preference through mail-in presidential preference cards received unanimous support from the party’s state central committee Saturday,” The Gazette’s Liam Halawith writes. The plan “would schedule delegate selection precinct caucuses to be held the same night as Iowa Republicans — eight days before any other state’s presidential primary.” The plan will now be submitted to the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee.
GEARING UP — “With the debt ceiling drama now behind him, President Joe Biden is starting to focus more on the mechanics of his reelection campaign,” POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Chris Cadelago write. “The president’s team is in talks with Gov. JB Pritzker (D-Ill.) about holding a fundraiser later this month.”
ON THE UP AND UP — “Senate Republicans blew it last year in the midterms. Six months later, things are finally going their way.” Holly and Ally Mutnick report: “The Senate GOP’s campaign arm got good news in recent weeks when two very conservative politicians eyeing a run for the upper chamber — Pennsylvania state Sen. Doug Mastriano and Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson — both decided to forgo statewide campaigns. … Privately, there is a growing belief that they are close to landing even more top recruits in the critical swing states of Montana, Pennsylvania and Nevada.”
MARYLAND MULLING — Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) said he’d decide if he’s running for Senate before the Fourth of July. Other Democrats running for the seat include Rep. David Trone, who is already spending heavily on the airwaves for his Senate bid, and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, who is raking in high-profile endorsements.
LEGAL LOOK — Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) “is once again at the heart of a sprawling federal criminal investigation concentrating at least in part on the possibility that the senator received undisclosed gifts,” The Washington Post’s Isaac Stanley-Becker and Perry Stein write. And even though the “federal investigation has injected unpredictability into the 2024 election,” a Menendez spokesperson said he intends to run for a fourth term.
NOT A NO — When asked if she’s considering a bid for governor in 2026, Democratic Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told The Detroit News’ Beth LeBlanc that she’s “focused on 2024 and, after 2024, I’ll make a decision about what I’m doing next.”
ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — The Ohio Supreme Court last week ruled that an abortion rights initiative trying to get on the November ballot “can proceed as written,” NBC4 Columbus’ Maeve Walsh writes. Opponents against the initiative asked to strike down the initiative because they claimed the language “contains multiple amendments to the state constitution as opposed to a single issue required by law. Thus, the plaintiffs said the ballot board abused its discretion by greenlighting the initiative, whose provisions include protections for contraception, fertility treatment and health care that falls outside the scope of abortion.”
TECH CORNER — YouTube will “stop removing content that advances false claims that widespread fraud, errors, or glitches occurred in the 2020 and other past US Presidential elections,” it wrote in a blog post on Friday. The policy of removing such content has been in place since December 2020. The platform said that “while removing this content does curb some misinformation, it could also have the unintended effect of curtailing political speech without meaningfully reducing the risk of violence or other real-world harm.” YouTube still has its election misinformation policy in place, which disallows content that interferes with “democratic processes.”
— Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is virtually tied with Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher in a hypothetical matchup for Wisconsin Senate, per a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll conducted for the NRSC. Baldwin has 47 percent of support compared to Gallagher’s 46 percent (500 likely voters, May 23-25, MoE +/- 4.38 percentage points). Gallagher has met with the NRSC and has not closed the door on a Senate bid, Ally reports.
— Issue One is bringing two dozen current and former election officials to D.C. this week for a series of meetings with the White House, Department of Justice, Department of Homeland Security, and bipartisan members of Congress to advocate for increased election funding and expanded protections for election officials. It’s part of the advocacy group’s Faces of Democracy campaign that launched last year. Some familiar faces include Democratic Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, Democratic Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and Republican Maricopa County Supervisor Bill Gates, who last week said he wasn’t running for reelection.
— “Arizona Republican Party effort to end mail-in voting dies after Supreme Court refuses to hear case,” by the Arizona Republic’s Mary Jo Pitzl.
— Protect Louisiana’s Children, an outside group boosting Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry in the race for Louisiana governor, is hitting GOP opponent Stephen Waguespack on the economy and jobs. A pro-Waguespack group, Reboot Louisiana, was going after Landry on crime last week.
— Presidential ad spending is far outpacing 2019 from the party seeking to take the White House. In the first five months of 2019, Democrat candidates and groups spent a total $17.4 million in ads. In the same timeframe in 2023, Republican groups and candidates have spent a total $33.2 million. Read more from AdImpact.
— Republican Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC received its second $1 million donation, the Richmond Times-Dispatch’s David Ress reports. The donation came from Future of Education LLC, an entity associated with Mackenzie L. Price, a Texas school reformer.
— Raquel Velazco is joining the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association as finance director. She previously worked for the Latino Victory Project and the DSCC.
— Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is building out his Iowa state team: Annie Kelly Kuhle is a senior adviser, Jeff Glassburner is Iowa state director, and George Anderson, Cole Kramersmeier and Andy Finzer will serve as Iowa regional political directors, per the Des Moines Register’s Brianne Pfannenstiel.
CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Someone asked me if I was running for Senate and I laughed so hard I almost vomited.” (Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.) to The Dispatch)
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