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In Iowa’s most competitive congressional district, the first-term Republican incumbent who won by less than a percentage point, has yet to field a single contender.
And it’s not the only seat where Iowa Democrats have had difficulty recruiting candidates as the party struggles to rebuild after bruising defeats in a state that has shifted dramatically from purple to red politically.
Three of Iowa’s four congressional seats Democrats held as recently as 2020 are still winnable, Iowa Democrats say, but the party doesn’t have candidates for two of them thus far.
Iowa City Democrat Christina Bohannan launched her second U.S. House bid last month, setting up a likely rematch with Iowa Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in southeast Iowa’s 1st District. The district includes the Iowa Quad-Cities, Iowa City, Burlington, Muscatine and Indianola.
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And two Democrats — Ryan Melton and Jay Brown — have said they plan to run against Republican incumbent Randy Feenstra in Western Iowa’s deeply conservative 4th District.
Democrats, though, have yet to field a challenger to take on Iowa GOP incumbent U.S. Reps. Ashley Hinson and Zach Nunn.
Nunn narrowly defeated Democratic incumbent Cindy Axne in 2022 to win Iowa’s 3rd District seat that has flipped in two of the last three elections, and could be key in deciding control of Congress.
Hinson, a former state lawmaker and former KCRG-TV news anchor, won re-election last year to a second term by eight percentage points against Democratic former state lawmaker Liz Mathis of Hiawatha in Iowa’s new 2nd District. Hinson unseated first-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Abby Finkenauer in 2020.
Over the previous five election cycles in Iowa, only three of the 17 non-incumbent candidates who eventually became their party’s nominee entered the race later than Iowa Democrats’ candidates would in the 2nd and 3rd districts for the 2024 election.
All three late-entry Congressional candidates were in Eastern Iowa’s former 2nd District — all three were Republican challengers to longtime Democratic Congressman Dave Loebsack.
“Objectively speaking, obviously, (Iowa Democrats) are at our low point,” Loebsack said. “There’s no question about that. But, I don’t think it’s a hopeless situation.”
State party warns DNC of writing off Iowa
Publicly, state and county party officials say they’re having productive conversations with individuals considering running as candidates and preparing them for what’s expected to be a grueling campaign.
They say it’s early yet in the cycle and that there’s still time for a candidate to launch a competitive campaign.
And, in the meantime, they’re working to rebuild a party exhausted by repeated defeats at the ballot box, and burned by the loss of their first-in-the-nation presidential nominating contest.
Iowa Democrats took a beating in the 2022 midterm elections. Republicans bucked national headwinds and swept all four congressional races in the state for the first time in 50 years
Still, Iowa Democratic Party officials say they’re optimistic about the new leadership provided by Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart. They say they’re pleased with her focus of building local county party infrastructure from the ground up.
Privately, Hart sent the Democratic National Committee a letter stating the national party needs to invest more heavily in Iowa to help it retake the U.S. House of Representatives.
“I’m confident we’re going to have some announcements here fairly soon,” Hart told The Gazette. “We’re at the epicenter of the political conversation. … And to have all of these Republican campaigns coming through the state of Iowa making headlines every day … the IDP needs every tool it can get to make sure that we are combating that as much as possible.”
She said she’s reaching out to “anyone and everyone for the resources we need to make the case that Iowa is important” and that state Democrats can “turn things around.”
“If we’re going to get people to understand that voting for Democrats is going to improve their lives, then I need a few more resources to get that done,” Hart said.
She acknowledged “it will be a mountain to climb” to combat the tens of millions in outside spending already flooding into the state from conservative groups.
Local Democrats voiced similar concerns.
One Cedar Falls Democrat told The Gazette they are meeting with people in the district, but are in the early days of deciding whether to run.
“It’s not easy, and every cycle is different,” Hart said. “The important thing is that we run quality candidates. I am confident that that is what you will see. And sometimes it takes a little bit of patience before it hits the headlines.”
‘They don’t see the path to win’
Bret Nilles, chair of the Linn County Democrats, said he and Mathis have tried to recruit people to run for the northeast Iowa seat. But those they’ve talked to have said they are worried about how much outside help a Democrat in the district will get.
Hinson’s campaign benefited from nearly $3.3 million in outside spending during the last campaign cycle, mainly from ad buys by the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The super PAC spent more than $2 million in Iowa’s 2nd District race, according to the money in politics tracker Open Secrets.
And if a candidate like Mathis couldn’t get it done last cycle, Nilles said not many see a path forward for someone with less government experience and name recognition, especially when there’s uncertainty as to whether Democratic President Joe Biden will be a help or hindrance to Democrats down-ballot. And there is no statewide race with a Democrat at the top of the ticket to help drive voter turnout and enthusiasm.
“That’s a big challenge to a lot of people — that the hill might be too high to climb at this time,” Nilles said. “ … They don’t see the path to win.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee included Iowa’s 1st and 3rd districts on its list of 33 competitive Republican-held or open districts across the country it deems “in play” for the 2024 election cycle. It is not focused on the 2nd District represented by Hinson, which includes Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Waterloo and Grinnell.
A DCCC spokesperson declined to comment for this story.
Cook Political Report rates Iowa’s 3rd District as a “leans Republican” district. It rates Iowa’s 2nd District as “solid Republican,” meaning the race is not considered competitive and is not likely to become closely contested.
“Democrats are struggling in Iowa because they’ve totally lost touch with Iowa values and our voters,” said Addie Lavis, Hinson’s campaign manager. “ … Ashley’s record of conservative accomplishments speaks for itself, and she and our team are working every single day to keep Iowa red and fire Joe Biden in 2024 so we can take our country back.”
Loebsack, Linn County’s Nilles and others, however, see hope if Democrats can recruit a strong candidate. One, they said, who is willing to put in the work and engage with voters in all parts of the district, and is able to push a messaging campaign that paints Hinson as someone who often sides with the extreme wing of the GOP.
“We’re trying to do everything we can to build the organization in the 2nd district to find a candidate and have an organization that can help them when they do decide to get in the race,” Nilles said.
Names floated, but so far no takers to challenge Nunn
Both Jennifer Konfrst, of Windsor Heights, and state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, of West Des Moines, have been floated as possibilities to challenge Nunn. Both said they are focused on state-level politics and trying to flip seats in the Iowa Legislature.
Political insiders also floated Theresa Greenfield’s name. Greenfield unsuccessfully ran against Republican Joni Ernst for the U.S. Senate in 2020. Greenfield, who has been serving in the USDA after Biden appointed her in 2021 as the director of rural development for Iowa, declined to comment.
Konfrst said rather than jumping in too early, it’s more important to ensure a candidate is set up for success.
“The (3rd District) race was so close in 2022 that a Democrat can win this seat, and I don’t think a couple of months is going to make or break that candidate,” Konfrst said. “ … If we have to wait a little bit longer for the right candidate, then I think it’s absolutely worth it. And I have full faith that they can catch up.”
She said it’s her hope to have a challenger announced by the end of October.
“The problem isn’t that there aren’t enough qualified candidates in the district,” she said. “The problem is making sure this person is right to do this right now and can put in the work that’s needed to win. Zach Nunn is beatable. He’s not beatable without a lot of work.”
Kendyl Parker, Nunn’s campaign manager, disputed the notion.
“While Iowa Democrat politicians are focused on partisan politics and dividing Iowans, Congressman Nunn is focused on serving Iowans and advancing their shared priorities in Washington,” Parker said in an emailed statement.
Bill Brauch, chairman of the Polk County Democrats, said he is confident that it’s not too late for a Democratic candidate to enter the 2024 campaign for Congress in Iowa’s 3rd District.
Polk County is by far the most populous in the district, and it is where Democratic candidates run up their margins in order to win the district.
Brauch said his organization throughout 2023 has been laying the grassroots groundwork that will benefit whomever becomes the eventual Democratic candidate.
“No, I don’t (think it’s too late for a serious Democratic challenger to enter the race). Not at all. I think we’ll be just fine if we have somebody in the next month or so,” Brauch said. “It’s something that we think about and we do talk about: ‘Gee, it would be good if we had somebody.’ But it’s not at all going to hurt us that they get started in October, even if it comes to November.”
Brauch said Polk County Democrats have been identifying where the party’s turnout was insufficient in 2022, when Nunn defeated Democratic incumbent Congresswoman Cindy Axne.
“We’ve been working all through the summer already on this, and we’ve got a good head start,” Brauch said. “We are really, really making an effort right now to reach out and build that base. And we are going to work very, very closely with our congressional candidate. It’s going to be a team effort. That’s the only way we win.”
Iowa Democrats plead for resources
Konfrst and Iowa DNC member Scott Brennan have met with national party leaders in Washington, D.C., warning them that writing the state off in 2024 could jeopardize their ability to win back the U.S. House of Representatives and put Biden’s agenda at risk.
At a July meeting of the DNC’s rule-making body, Brennan, shared a one-page document that provided examples of how each of Iowa’s nine media markets “bleeds into at least one county of our neighboring states.”
Those markets, Brennan wrote, are being “saturated” with coverage of Republican presidential candidates and TV ads from their campaigns and political action committees criticizing Biden and Democrats.
Brennan and Hart said the state, too, needs more money for organizing, voter education efforts and messaging if Iowa is going to be competitive.
“Those (Republican campaign) messages get hammered every day and we need to have corresponding messages in some ways,” Brennan told The Gazette. “These are winnable seats and shame on us if we don’t have resources to compete in Iowa because it’s going to hurt us in surrounding states.”
House Republicans hold a narrow four-seat majority.
“If you win just two of the Iowa seats, that’s half of your margin right there,” Brennan said. “With the gerrymandering Republicans have done nationally there aren’t that many seats Democrats can pick up. … We need to be smart about where we put our money, and putting our money in Iowa can be smart.
The national party fully funds a communications position in the state that is dedicated to rebutting GOP presidential candidates when they visit. A DNC official told USA Today it is committed to spending more than $500,000 to support Iowa Democrats across the state in 2023 and 2024.
Brauch said he believes the DCCC will come through in Central Iowa’s 3rd District. And he said that financial support for the eventual Democratic candidate in the 3rd District is “vitally important” to recruiting candidates and winning the general election.
Every challenger who eventually won the party’s nomination in the 3rd District from 2014 to 2020 entered the race between May and August of the year before the election.
Konfrst said the DCCC continues to reiterate they’re invested in helping Democrats win in Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts.
And groups like Progress Iowa are mobilizing around issues in the absence of a candidate, such as a trio of GOP tax bills it argues amount to a windfall for large corporations and wealthy Americans, and drawing attention to Nunn’s voting record.
Nunn has not said whether he would support the tax bills.
A group of Iowa organizations also launched a website intended to showcase the effects of Biden administration investments and policies in Iowa that Nunn and other Iowa Republican have opposed.
“Frankly, if we can localize these races and make them about the people and make them about who is listening to Iowans and who is listening to special interests, we can actually make a really good case,” Konfrst said.
Glimmers of hope
Hart and other Iowa Democrats say they see glimmers of hope.
A day after announcing her second run for southeast Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, Bohannan’s campaign announced it has raised more than $276,000 in its first 24 hours. And Warren County voters last month ousted a GOP-appointed auditor who had previously made social media posts that questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election. Democrat Kimberly Sheets won with more than 66% of the vote in a county Republican former President Donald Trump carried by nearly 17 points in 2020.
But, the deeper it gets into the campaign cycle and the longer it takes for candidates to announce, the more difficult it gets to raise money, hire qualified campaign staff and build name recognition, said University of Northern Iowa political science professor Chris Larimer.
“That will be a challenge to … overcome the advantage of incumbency, and building relationships with voters will be harder in a shortened time frame,” Larimer said. “All of that gets shortened and puts that much more pressure on a campaign and a candidate.”
Both Nunn and Hinson had more than $1 million in cash on hand, according to their most recent financial report filed with the Federal Election Commission. And both have lapped up attention from Republican presidential candidates who headlined fundraisers for them this summer.
“I think that Ashley Hinson is hard to beat, if I’m being honest,” Konfrst said. “I don’t think it’s a lost cause. … There’s plenty about Ashley Hinson’s work that deserves scrutiny, and she deserves a good challenge.”
Iowa Democrats, though, need to strike while the iron’s hot, Loebsack said.
“The sooner the better, there’s no question,” he said of having declared candidates for both races. “If by the end of the year there’s not announced candidates in those districts, it is going to be much more difficult. There’s no questions about that.”
When should a candidate get in the race?
Chris Peters unsuccessfully ran for Congress twice in Eastern Iowa, as a Republican and both times against Loebsack.
Peters’ 2016 campaign started abnormally late, in March of 2016. His 2018 campaign started at a much more common time, in July of 2017.
Peters said the early stages of a Congressional campaign are often spent making connections with party leaders, building campaign staff and talking to donors and consultants.
Peters said there still is time for Democratic challengers in Iowa’s 2nd and 3rd districts to do all those things, but he also cautioned that they should not wait much longer.
“There’s certainly plenty of time to organize and get things going and get things teed up. But I think you don’t want to wait too long,” Peters said. “For a good candidate, there’s plenty of time. (But) if they’re waiting too much longer, I would think they’re going to be having a hard time keeping ahead of the news cycle.”
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