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Former President Donald Trump’s lead over the GOP primary field has grown to over 40 points since June, while Democratic voters continue to express concerns about President Joe Biden’s age and handling of the economy, according to a new NBC News poll.
“This survey is a startling flashing red light for an incumbent party,” said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the poll with Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt.
59% of the Republican voters surveyed want the former president, who currently faces four separate criminal indictments and 91 charges, to carry the GOP standard in 2024–up from 51% in a similar NBC poll in June. Since that last survey, Trump has been indicted in a federal and state case related to his attempts to overturn the 2020 election, and his mugshot was taken in Georgia.
“Yes, the numbers for Biden aren’t where he needs them to be,” said Horwitt. “But the lens for most voters is still through Donald Trump first.”
According to the poll released Sunday, 60% of surveyed voters—drawn from across the political spectrum—have either major or moderate concerns about Trump’s criminal and civil trials.
Yet those concerns have not appeared to dampen his stranglehold on the party. NBC reported that the bulk of Trump’s gains since June came from men, seniors and moderate GOP primary voters.
In a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 election, 58% of Biden voters said their vote is more a vote against Trump than it is for the president. Most Trump voters, on the other hand, indicated their vote is less against Biden than it is for the former president.
Coming in a distant second place in the NBC poll is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whose support has shrunk from 22% in June to 16% in the latest tally. Nikki Haley came in third with 7%, while former Vice President Mike Pence and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each garnered 4%.
The poll also has some sobering news for President Joe Biden, who has faced questions about his age since announcing his re-election bid and would be 82 years old at the start of a second term in 2025. Nearly three-quarters of registered voters expressed significant (59%) or moderate (15%) concerns about Biden’s age. Asked the same question about Trump, 47% expressed concerns.
The poll found Biden and Trump tied among registered voters in a hypothetical rematch.
Overall, 56% of registered voters disapprove of Biden’s job performance—the highest tally of his presidency so far. And just 28% indicated that they’re satisfied with the state of the U.S., a 20-point dip since the beginning of Biden’s presidency. That number is especially concerning for the Biden campaign, which is hoping to make Biden’s handling of the economy a central plank of his re-election bid.
Perhaps most concerning for Biden, 59% of Democratic primary voters said they want someone to challenge Biden for the party’s nomination, though no such credible challenger has emerged.
The NBC poll was conducted from September 15-19, and surveyed 1,000 registered voters.
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