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Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s switch from Democrat to independent could doom her reelection chances and Republicans’ hopes of retaking the Arizona seat, according to an Emerson College poll released Tuesday.
The survey showed that Ms. Sinema, who has yet to say whether she’ll seek a second term next year, is likely to siphon more support from the GOP candidate than the Democrat in hypothetical three-way matchups.
With Senate Democrats’ one-seat majority, Arizona will be one of the most closely watched races in 2024.
Rep. Ruben Gallego is the chief Democratic challenger and outraised Ms. Sinema for the second straight quarter ended in June, hauling in nearly double the incumbent with $3.1 million.
Republican candidates include Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and mechanical engineer Brian Wright. Former Arizona GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake is a potential candidate and received a plurality of support among Republican primary voters in the poll but was not included as an option in its hypothetical matchups.
In a three-way race, Mr. Gallego received 36% support, Mr. Lamb 29% and Ms. Sinema 21%, with 15% undecided. Roughly 21% of Republicans and 8% of Democrats would support Ms. Sinema.
Without Ms. Sinema, 42% back both Mr. Gallego and Mr. Lamb, with 16% undecided.
In a separate three-way matchup with Mr. Wright, Mr. Gallego received 37% support, Ms. Sinema 26% and Mr. Wright 25%, with 12% undecided. About 34% of Republicans and 8% of Democrats would back Ms. Sinema.
Absent Ms. Sinema, 41% supported Mr. Gallego and 38% Mr. Wright, with 21% undecided.
The Emerson College poll was conducted Aug. 2-4 among 1,337 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
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