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Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers received a boost in the hotly contested Michigan Senate race, narrowing the gap in a race where multiple polls had shown him trailing, according to a new survey from a firm RealClearPolitics calls the “most accurate pollster.”
A new poll from The Trafalgar Group, known for predicting Donald Trump‘s 2016 victory over Hillary Clinton, shows Rogers essentially typing up the race. The Trafalgar Group, led by conservative pollster Robert Cahaly, notably predicted a “red wave” in the 2022 midterms, which never materialized.
In Michigan, Democratic Representative Elissa Slotkin and former Representative Rogers are vying for the seat of retiring Senator Debbie Stabenow in a race that could tip the balance of power in the Senate where the majority is up for grabs with razor-thin margins. The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.
Most polls show Rogers, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, trailing Slotkin in the politically divided state, which has swung between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections—however, a Republican hasn’t won a Senate race in Michigan since 1994.
The latest Trafalgar poll, conducted from September 28 to 30 among 1,086 likely voters in Michigan, shows Rogers and Slotkin separated by less than half a percentage point, with Rogers at 47 percent and Slotkin at 47.4 percent. The poll also found 5.5 percent of respondents undecided. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
Newsweek filled out a contact form on Rogers’ website and emailed Slotkin’s press team for comment via email on Wednesday.
As of October 1, aggregate polls, including RealClearPolitics, show Slotkin 3.7 percentage points ahead of Rogers in the state, with The Hill‘s aggregate poll finding Slotkin ahead by 3.4 percentage points.
Individual polls, like The New York Times/Siena College poll from September 21 to 26 of 688 likely voters found Rogers behind by 5 percentage points, 42 percent to Slotkin’s 47 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report’s survey of 416 likely Michigan voters between September 19 and September 25 found Slotkin’s margins narrowing from August, but still placed her ahead by 4 percentage points, with 50 percent of the vote to Rogers’ 46 percent. She had an 8-point lead in a similar August poll.
Cook Political Report classifies the race as one of two toss-ups in the November election, along with Ohio’s competitive Senate race.
The highly contested race has been costly, with nonprofit Open Secrets indicating that Slotkin has raised $23.8 million, while Rogers has raised $5.3 million in total. She has spent more than $15 million, compared to nearly $2.8 million spent by Rogers as of July 17, when candidates filed their pre-primary financial disclosures with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
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