Sherrod Brown Gets Good News After Being Dealt Double Polling Blow in Ohio

Democratic Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown received a boost to his reelection hopes after a new survey found him leading his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, just days after two consecutive polls showed him trailing.

Moreno and Brown are locked in a tight race for a highly contested U.S. Senate seat, with most polls showing the candidates’ leads within the margin of error.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of 687 likely voters in Ohio found the three-term senator 4 percentage points ahead of Moreno in the highly contested Buckeye state, which is within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll, conducted from September 17 to 21, found Brown garnering 47 percent of the vote compared to Moreno’s 43 percent.

Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks New York Times/Siena College polling as America’s best pollster based on historical track record and methodological transparency.

The poll shows Brown drawing support from 10 percent of voters who backed former President Donald Trump in 2020, and 13 percent of his supporters identify as Republicans. On the other hand, Moreno, who Trump endorsed ahead of the state’s GOP primary in March, is reportedly drawing only 1 percent of voters who identify as Democrats.

Newsweek has reached out to Brown and Moreno’s campaign teams for comment via email on Saturday.

With 37 days until Election Day, which will determine the presidential seat and control of Congress, the Senate majority is up for grabs with razor-thin margins. The upper chamber is currently controlled by the Democrats, who hold a narrow majority of 51 seats as four independents caucus with the party, while Republicans hold 49 seats.

The Cook Political Report currently rates the Ohio Senate race as a “toss-up.” In the presidential race, the state is expected to vote for Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance. State aggregate polls, such as FiveThirtyEight, show Trump holding an 8.6 percentage point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Ohio. Trump carried the state in both 2016 and 2020.

The recently released Times/Siena College poll comes after two polls showed Moreno up in the state. However, over the summer months, most polls found Brown leading Moreno.

An ActiVote poll conducted from August 16 to September 22, showed the Democrat down by 2.2 percentage points, with Moreno garnering 51.1 percent support compared to Brown’s 48.9 percent. The poll surveyed 400 likely Ohio voters and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent, meaning Moreno’s narrow lead is well within the survey’s margin of error.

A Napolitan News survey of 781 likely voters conducted between September 18 and 20, found Moreno ahead of Brown at 48 percent to 46 percent, another lead that is within the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

Other previous polls, showed Brown ahead in the contested race. Morning Consult polling conducted between September 9 and 18 had Brown up by 2 points over Moreno. The Democrat had the backing of 46 percent of likely Ohio voters and the Republican had the support of 44 percent. The survey included at least 474 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Last week, Moreno was criticized by political opponents and members of his own party after calling it “a little crazy” that some women voters in the state cite abortion as their top issue in the 2024 election.

“You know, the left has a lot of single issue voters,” Moreno said during a town hall on Friday, according to a video obtained by NBC4. “Sadly, by the way, there’s a lot of suburban women, a lot of suburban women that are like, ‘Listen, abortion is it. If I can’t have an abortion in this country whenever I want, I will vote for anybody else.'”

Abortion is a top issue in November’s election across the ballot, as it comes two years after the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade and ended a woman’s federal right to an abortion.

On Monday, Brown shared a video clip that included Moreno’s town hall comments on X, formerly Twitter, and wrote: “You know what’s crazy…Bernie Moreno thinking he knows better than 57% of Ohioans who voted to protect abortion rights last year,” he wrote.

Moreno also received backlash from members of his party, such as former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley who posted Moreno’s comments to X and wrote, “Are you trying to lose the election? Asking for a friend.”

Conservative political commentator Bill Kristol wrote on X: “I dunno Perhaps women past 50 care about their daughters? Or about younger women in general? Or about personal freedom?”