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Happening this Tuesday: President Biden joins UAW picket line in Michigan at noon ET and then heads to fundraiser in California… Seven candidates qualify for Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate, with Asa Hutchinson missing the cut… House Republicans announce witnesses for Thursday’s Biden impeachment inquiry hearing… And more Democratic senators call on Sen. Bob Menendez to resign after indictment.
But FIRST… The latest NBC News poll finds Republicans with a 21-point advantage on which political party better handles the economy, with 49% of registered voters picking the GOP and 28% picking the Democratic Party.
That’s the largest lead Republicans have held on this question in our poll dating back to 1991.
At the same time, the NBC News survey shows Democrats with just a 2-point edge on which party better looks out for the middle class, with 36% picking the Democratic Party and 34% selecting the GOP.
That’s the Democratic Party’s smallest advantage on this question dating back to 1989.
These results — which also find the GOP with advantages on immigration and crime, and with the Democratic Party ahead on abortion, education and health care — come after the Biden White House has made a concerted effort to tout the economic gains over the last two years, versus the job losses at the end of the Trump administration amid the Covid pandemic.
They also come as President Biden today joins a UAW picket line in Michigan, and as House Republicans veer towards a possible/likely government shutdown at the end of the week.
The good news for the Biden White House and Democrats is that we just had a midterm election a year ago — with high inflation dominating the issue landscape — and Democrats held their own by using abortion and Donald Trump’s unpopularity to hold on the Senate and just narrowly lose the House.
The other potential wildcard here is what might happen to the GOP’s economic advantage if there’s a government shutdown — given that House Republicans’ hands are on the steering wheel of this latest impasse.
Still, these are rough numbers for a White House when the unemployment rate is at 3.8%, when hundreds of thousands of jobs are being created each month and when the rate of inflation has been declining.
And they raise an important question: Why is there this disconnect between these positive economic statistics and perceptions of Biden’s handling of the economy?
Headline of the day
The number of the day is … 39%
That’s the portion of registered voters in our new national NBC News poll who view President Biden in a positive light, the highest favorability rating for all of the public figures polled despite being well under 50%.
Still, a larger share of the electorate — 49% — view Biden in a negative light. The only two figures with higher negative numbers are former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Just 35% of voters view Trump favorably and 54% view him negatively. And 51% of voters view Harris unfavorably and just 31% of voters look at her positively.
Speaker Kevin McCarthy is the official whose favorability rating is most underwater — just 16% of voters view him in a positive light and 39% view him in a negative light. Twenty-five percent of those polled view him neutrally, while 20% aren’t sure what they think.
The figure with the best net-rating in the poll is former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. Twenty-three percent of voters view her positively, while 26% view her negatively. A higher share — 28% — didn’t know enough about Haley to say and 23% view her neutrally.
Other numbers to know
65%: The share of voters who say the winner of the national popular vote should win the presidency, rather than the winner of the Electoral College, a Pew Research Center survey finds.
3: The number of Democratic senators who say New Jersey Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez should resign following his federal indictment.
$5 million: How much a gunman who killed 23 people at a Walmart in a racially-motivated shooting in El Paso in 2019 will pay in restitution to victims’ families, a court document revealed Monday.
2: The number of Pacific Island nations — the Cook Islands and Niue — that President Biden announced on Monday would share diplomatic ties with the U.S.
7.5%: The portion of U.S. adults who have long Covid, as new research proves the condition is a “biological illness.”
More than 10,000: The number of drug traffickers who have been convicted and sentenced who may be affected by the Supreme Court’s decision in an upcoming case regarding the 2018 First Step Act.
Eyes on 2024: Hutchinson vows to stay in race despite missing debate stage
Just one candidate will be absent from Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate stage after making the first debate: former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.
Hutchinson failed to meet the Republican National Committee’s requirements to qualify for the contest, which stipulated that candidates garner support from at least 50,000 donors, hit at least 3% in national or state polls from early primary states and sign party pledges that include backing the eventual nominee
“Despite falling short of the RNC’s polling requirement for inclusion in the second Presidential Primary Debate, I will continue our campaign to bring out the best of America with events scheduled in Iowa, New Hampshire, and across the country in the next several weeks,” Hutchinson said in a statement after the RNC announced the debate participants Monday night.
Hutchinson said he is aiming to hit 4% in early state polls “before Thanksgiving” (that 4% mark is also the required polling threshold to qualify for the third debate on Nov. 8).
The former governor said he would hold a press conference in Detroit on Wednesday instead of attending the debate. There, Hutchinson plans to highlight Trump’s “false promises to blue collar and union workers,” with the former president expected to address workers there that day. Trump will also be skipping the second debate.
While Hutchinson will not be on the stage Wednesday, seven other GOP candidates who participated in last month’s debate will be facing off again. They are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C.
In other campaign news …
Gov faceoff: DeSantis and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, D-Calif., are set to debate on Fox News on Nov. 30.
Shutdown politics: Trump inserted himself into the government funding fight playing out on Capitol Hill, urging Republicans in a Truth Social post, “UNLESS YOU GET EVERYTHING, SHUT IT DOWN!,” per NBC News’ Sahil Kapur. Haley, meanwhile, told Bloomberg Government that it would be “irresponsible and inexcusable” to shut the government down, but added, “It is also irresponsible and inexcusable to not cut all of the spending.”
Constitutional conundrum: Amid attempts to bar Trump from the ballot in some states due to the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause, the former president’s attorneys argued that taking him off the ballot would violate Trump’s First Amendment right to free speech.
Second place in the Granite State: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley edged out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov Chris Christie in a new statewide GOP presidential primary poll in New Hampshire, taking second place behind Trump.
Abortion on the airwaves: Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., is out with a new national TV ad for his presidential campaign, pushing back on the characterization that his position on abortion is extreme, per NBC News’ Nnamdi Egwuonwu.
Sticking it out: Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J., who was indicted on corruption charges last week, told reporters on Monday that he will not resign his post while his case moves forward. He did not say whether he would run for re-election in 2024.
Earmarks in question: California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff touts his support for earmarked federal spending on the campaign trail as he runs for Senate, but Politico reports that Schiff also used earmarks early in his career to secure “generous” amounts of funding for corporate beneficiaries.
He’s not driving, he’s running: Ex-NASCAR driver Austin Theriault is running as a Republican in Maine’s 2nd District for a chance to unseat Rep. Jared Golden, one of five Democrats representing a district Trump won in 2020.
ICYMI: What ELSE is happening in the world
NBC News’ Ryan J. Reilly reports an FBI analysis ahead of the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol “concluded that domestic violent extremists were ‘very willing to take action’ in response to a disputed election.”
California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom signed new laws adding protections for LGBTQ youth.
Days after Trump accused Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley of treason, writing on social media that “in times gone by, the punishment would have been death!,” Arizona GOP Rep. Paul Gosar wrote in a newsletter that “in a better society,” Milley “would be hung.”
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