Primary election ‘good news’ for Youngkin

“For the Republicans, the primary contest was good news for Gov. Youngkin,” said Stephen Farnsworth, professor at the University of Mary Washington and director of the university’s Center for Leadership and Media Studies. “The candidates that he backed pretty consistently won their primaries around the Commonwealth and so the governor’s effort to secure a majority in the legislature was strengthened by Republican primary voter preferences.”

Durant won the primary with 57% of the vote compared to Strickland’s 42.9%, according to preliminary results posted by the Virginia Public Access Project.

The redrawn 27th Senate District includes all of Fredericksburg, 31 precincts in Stafford County and 12 precincts in Spotsylvania County.

Strickland did best in Spotsylvania, where his restaurant, Gourmeltz, is located and where he lost to Durant by only 12 votes, according to VPAP.

“But he is not as well known in Stafford, which is Durant’s home base and where the lion’s share of the electorate in the district is located,” Farnsworth said. “When you have a financial advantage and you’re an incumbent and you have the governor’s support, it’s a real uphill environment for a challenger.”

Durant won almost 59% of the Republican primary votes in Stafford and 71% of those in Fredericksburg.

In a post on her campaign Facebook page, Durant said she is “honored to be your Republican candidate” and called for the party to unite “so we can tear down the Democrats’ brick wall in the Senate and send a Republican majority to Richmond in November!”

The Democrats also held a primary race in the 27th Senate District, and results bucked a statewide trend that favored more progressive candidates, Farnsworth said.

In Northern Virginia, several senior Democratic incumbents were defeated by challengers, “redefining the party in a more liberal direction,” Farnsworth said.

But in the Fredericksburg area, Joel Griffin — a moderate Democrat who came to the race relatively recently but with the backing of party officials — beat progressive candidate Ben Litchfield with 59.7% of the vote.

“(Rep. Abigail) Spanberger and former delegate Cole in particular were key voices to help shape the preferences of a number of Democratic voters in the district,” Farnsworth said. “Neither Griffin nor Litchfield were all that well known, and so when a candidate doesn’t have a lot of name recognition, endorsements can be more powerful.”

The other area Senate primary, in the 29th district, which includes six Stafford County precincts as well as most of Prince William County, is headed for a recount on both sides.

Incumbent Democratic state Sen. Jeremy McPike is leading challenger Elizabeth Guzman by 46 votes and on the Republican side, Nikki Rattray Baldwin is ahead of Maria Martin by just 10 votes.

The 29th district leans blue, Farnsworth said, and neither Baldwin nor Martin were endorsed by Youngkin.

There was also a Republican primary for the 65th House District, which includes all of Fredericksburg, four precincts in Spotsylvania and 10 in Stafford.

Lee Peters, a captain in the Stafford Sheriff’s Office, won that race by a wide margin over Michael Kasey, who endorsed Strickland and garnered just 23% of the vote.

Peters will face pastor and former delegate Joshua Cole in November.

Stafford County also held a primary for treasurer. According to preliminary results, deputy Commissioner of the Revenue Mike Sienkowski narrowly won with 50.9% of the vote to Heather Mitchell’s 49%.

Farnsworth said Fredericksburg-area voters should expect a “really intense” fall campaign season, as control of the state Senate could come down to the 27th District.

“For Republicans, the key issue has been Democratic opposition to the governor’s agenda,” he said. “If Gov. Youngkin is able to secure Republican majorities in the legislature, his final two years will be a lot more successful than his first two.

For Democrats, we’re talking about the mirror image. Democrats are likely to run on, ‘What would happen if the Republicans did control Virginia across the board?’”